There
is a saying in Malayalam, “Alpanu Aishwaryam Kittiyaal Ardharathrikkum Kuta Pitikkum.”
A crude translation would be, when the small minded people become rich, they
will hold an umbrella even in the midnight. Holding an umbrella in the hot sun
during the day is a sign of prosperity (the poor people working under the sun
cannot, of course, afford it), but using an umbrella even at midnight (well,
rain is an exception) is a sure sign of small mindedness coupled with undeserved
prosperity.
The
reactions from Modi Government, to the Indian Army’s reported cross border
strikes against North East militants hiding in Myanmar territory reminded me of
that old saying. However, the focus of this post is not whether Modi and his
ministers are small-minded or not. What I am concerned about is whether India will
have to pay the price for Modi government’s blunder. Let me explain!
No sovereign
country in the world would like soldiers from other countries to cross its
borders and carry out operations at will. If and when such things happen, the relationship
between the countries would suffer, for sure. However, there are exceptions when the
countries create sufficient mutual trust and understanding on how to proceed
when such cross border strikes become imperative for whatever reasons. One such
exception was the India-Myanmar understanding on cross-border operations
against militants from Northeast who cross over to Myanmar after committing
terrorist activities in Indian Territory.
It was
in December
2010 that India and Myanmar entered into an agreement to allow Indian
forces to cross the borders in hot pursuit of militants who escape to Myanmar.
Of course, as expected in any such agreements between two sovereign countries,
there were permissions to be obtained and process to be followed while crossing
the border. Even with those conditions, it was an exceptionally friendly
gesture from the Myanmar government to allow such cross border operations. It
was also exceptional diplomacy from the then Indian government to get such an agreement
executed with a neighboring country. Unlike the Modi government, nobody in the
then government went to town with the news, claiming credit.
It was
not the first instance of India’s neighbors providing assistance to India in
dealing with her militant outfits. Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Myanmar have
provided similar assistance in the past. Indian Army had conducted operations, or
assisted the armed forces of neighbors in flushing out Indian militants camping
in their respective territories. However, these operations were either projected
as sole operations of the armed forces of respective countries or kept under
wraps, for obvious reasons. No country can afford to be seen as compromising its
sovereignty, whatever the reasons might be. Even in the present strikes, it is naïve to
believe that India conducted a unilateral operation without keeping the friendly
government in Myanmar informed (Some friends suggest, it might have been the case that Myanmar not kept in the loop by Indian Army during this operation. Even if that is true, India should have kept the details of the operations a secret for the sake of continued friendship with Myanmar and similar actions in the future, in any of the friendly neighboring countries).
Where
does that leave the brave chest thumping by Modi government, post Myanmar
operations? Minister Rajyavardhan Rathore used the occasion to warn other
countries by saying that the operation was a message to all. Of course, the ‘all’
included China and Pakistan, the latter being the highest cross border supporter
of Indian militants and terrorists. Perhaps
the Minister was playing to the crowd of gullible Modi Bhakts on social media for,
obviously, he could not have been oblivious of the difference between a permitted
incursion into Myanmar and hostile incursion into China or Pakistan!
The
overt claims over a supposedly covert operation can make India a laughing stock
across the world, yet again. That apart, consider where do all these leave
Myanmar government? How will it answer (if at all it does) its own people about
the supposed violation of its sovereignty by Indian forces? No doubt each
border crossing by an Indian militant is equally a violation of the sovereignty
of that country, but no militant issues press statements to claim such
violations. Will Myanmar reconsider any such assistance in the future, or is it
so enamored by Modi’s charisma that it will suffer silently and let Modi create
his larger than life image of a daring leader?
That
applies to even other neighbors. Will they dare to offer similar permission or
assistance to Indian forces in the future, when it is likely to lead to exaggerated
claims from Modi government and create embarrassment for their governments? It
may not matter so much for Myanmar, but other democratic countries in which the
opposition is more active will not dare to be in a similar predicament.
Hope Modi
and his ministers will learn the basics of statecraft and diplomacy and stop showing
off their new umbrellas, at midnight!
