For me, the
day began with reading two conflicting reports on Indian economy. The first one
was a scathing indictment of the Finance Minister, by Yashwant Sinha a BJP
member and former finance minister. He said, not speaking out anymore on the
condition of Indian economy will amount to failing in his duty towards the
nation. A notable point in his article was that the 5.7% of GDP growth rate achieved
so far by Indian economy is equal to or less than 3.7% if we use the formula of
Manmohan Singh’s period. That means, on an apple to apple comparison, Modi Govt
has caused so much harm to the Indian economy and the result of an unbelievably
low growth rate of 3.7% for the first half of this financial year.
The second
was a news report on ADB's publication titled Asian Development Outlook 2017.
As per the report, the ADB has reduced to the growth rate for Indian economy
from an earlier projection of 7.4 % to 7%. Even though ADB is talking about a
reduction of 0.4% in its projections, the news was presented as a great
positive story. A 7% growth rate as against much lower rates suggested by many ‘anti-nationals’
including former PM Dr. Manmohan Singh and 'frustrated BJP leaders' like Swamy
and Sinha! Here is ADB (with much more credibility) substantiating the greatness
of Modi ji by saying India will grow at 7% in this financial year. What a slap
on the face of all those who criticized Modi ji’s great financial initiatives
like demonetization and half-baked GST!
Knowing the
kind of journalism we have to live with in these days, I decided to check why
ADB is giving out a projection that is so removed from the ground realities. According to Govt’s own admission the first
half of the financial year saw only a growth of 5.7%. If the growth for the
whole year has to reach an average of 7%, Indian economy has to grow at a
minimum of 8.3% for the second half! Given the admissions from Chief Economic
Advisor and Finance Minister (forget all others, including SBI’s and various
other doomsday reports) there is no way Indian economy can attain a growth of
8.3% in the remaining year.
So what is that
the reports on ADB’s Asian
Development Outlook 2017 was hiding from readers? Well, it was easy to find
out. I just went to ADB site and downloaded the publication and looked at the
basis for making such a projection. And there it was…The publication has
clearly made a disclosure that the projections were made on the basis of data
available up to 03 March 2017.
Now we all
know, in the month of March, Modi and his followers were still in hope of the
demonetization miracle. Since then, the reality has stuck even those who were
pretending to be asleep. Adding to the problems was the introduction of GST.
When lot of well-meaning people were cautioning about a hasty implementation,
the daring Modi ji went ahead and implemented it without even an iota of worry
as to how it will impact an economy which was already reeling under the impact
of demonetization.
Anyone who
comes across a prediction that says India will continue to grow at a decent 7%
in this year, despite all these setbacks, should have immediately looked at the
basis for such a prediction. If only they had looked, the reporters would have
found that the prediction is based on such outdated data. Perhaps, the
reporters merely wanted to gratify the Government and do their PR, rather than
informing their readers? More so since reports after reports that speak anything
against those in power are being taken down by the media houses!
